A Flightless Future: How Will Avian Flu Impact the US?

On January 6, 2025, the CDC reported the US’s first human death from avian flu (Public Health On Call, 2025). As the first human fatality, this announcement demonstrates the need for a clear, cohesive response to minimize large-scale effects on public health.

Scientists first discovered avian flu in wild birds during the 1990s. However, animal populations were not commonly affected until February 2022 (CDC, 2025). Since then, the virus rapidly evolved to affect poultry, cattle, and many more species. As of March 5, 2025, avian flu has spread to 17 states and infected over 950 dairy herds (CDC, 2025).

Many scientists and researchers believe that, if mishandled, the avian flu could turn into a pandemic-level threat for humans and animals alike. Its current rate of evolution, along with multiple mutations, paint a grim picture. At this point, farm workers are currently the most at-risk population. Many refuse to test their livestock due to financial concerns, such as loss of profit due to shutdowns, worsening the issue (Awan, 2025). The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) repeatedly struggles to limit the spread of avian flu across farms, with most measures, such as testing raw milk for avian flu and increased access to personal protective equipment, failing to quickly address the virus at its starting point (News Medical, 2024). As a result of these factors, avian flu has the potential to cause a pandemic if proactive measures are not taken.

Avian flu can also circulate without direct animal contact. Contaminated surfaces, such as milking equipment, can transmit avian flu, allowing it to become more widespread (News Medical, 2024). Current transmission of the avian flu to humans requires contact with the virus and then with the eyes, mouth, or nose. There are no known instances of it spreading directly from person to person. Moreover, there are many concerns regarding the transmission of the avian flu through raw milk, as tests have repeatedly detected it. However, there are no proven cases yet (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2025). Current knowledge is subject to change as more and more information comes out regarding avian flu’s evolution. Interspecies transmission of H5N1 creates major concerns within agriculture and healthcare sectors. Sustained animal-to-animal transmissions in mammals other than cows, such as ferrets, are an ominous sign of the infectious potential of avian flu (News Medical, 2024). According to Andy Pekosz, a professor in microbiology at Johns Hopkins University, researchers learned that the virus began to mutate in ways that would allow it to spread more efficiently in humans (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2025).

These mutations open up new pathways for largescale infections, similar to the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, while there is no evidence of avian flu being airborne, contact with influenza during flu seasons could lead to the sharing of genetic information between the two viruses, also known as recombination (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2025). Recombination occurs during the coinfection of a host cell, and is known to produce new or more virulent strains (Fleischmann, 2025). Recombinants of viruses can also infect previously immune individuals, leading to viruses causing multiple pandemics (Fleischmann, 2025). One such case of this is the H1N1 influenza virus that caused multiple pandemics in 1918-191, 1934, and 1947(Fleischmann, 2025). As a result of recombination, the risk of multiple pandemics across a multi-year span increases, expanding the impact of the virus.

Future

Concerning public health, the rapid evolution of the avian flu creates serious concerns. In 2020, gene swapping between avian flu strains in poultry and wild birds led to the creation of H5N1, the main culprit in most cases. First identified in Europe, H5N1 then rapidly spread to Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and the Americas (CDC, 2024). In 2021, there were 36 cases of avian flu, with 18 deaths in China, and spread to foxes by the end of the year (CDC, 2024).

Despite concerns of the spread of avian flu through raw milk, the CDC has marked its health risk as low in December 20, 2024 (HPAI in Livestock | Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, 2024).

Currently, farm workers and the agriculture industry as a whole are the most vulnerable. Out of 77 human cases, most are those in direct contact with infected animals. As a result, the majority of protective measures target farms. Farmers have already killed over 166 million to slow down the disease, with little effect (Rust & Kaplan, 2025). One major flaw in this approach is that infected birds can be asymptomatic and spread the disease through their feces before it is detected. This requires each bird to be tested individually, which is expensive and time-consuming (Rust & Kaplan, 2025). Even worse, laying hens are the most susceptible to avian flu, which can wipe out whole flocks at once (On the Frontline against Bird Flu, 2025). The USDA offers financial incentives and reimbursements, however, it is not enough to encourage and support farmers in the fight against the disease (Reals, 2024).

Are We Doing Enough?

The USDA announced the outbreak on March 25, 2024, shifting control from localized scientists and farmers to government officials (News Medical, 2024). Due to a lack of studies and early testing, the avian flu spread quickly through multiple states with little stopping. In December 2024, a federal order to test all raw milk nationwide was enacted (Awan, 2025). While helpful now, avian flu was found in raw milk supplies months before and could have been tracked down and isolated earlier. Since 2022, the USDA has already funneled $1.7 billion into containing the spread of avian flu on poultry farms, including running multiple outreach programs to gain farmers’ participation (News Medical, 2024).

While the government has taken some steps to mitigate the effects of the avian flu, its effects are negligible. As of 2025, the CDC recommends many biosecurity measures, including enhanced personal protective equipment, more testing, and increased outreach (CDC, 2025). However, even with millions of dollars worth of biosecurity, the spread of avian flu has not slowed down (On the Frontline against Bird Flu, 2025). Slow government response at the start could be the culprit.

Moreover, President Trump’s intent to have the US exit the World Health Organization has created many worries about global cooperation in containing avian flu (Kozlov, 2025). Still, the current actions taken by the US government to limit avian flu have had an overall minimal impact, leading researchers, veterinarians, and farmers alike to call for a new approach.

Next Steps

Proactive measures must be taken to prevent an avian flu pandemic. Containment of infected animals should have already been organized, which could have prevented mass cullings and limited human cases. It is of utmost importance to have widespread animal surveillance to monitor outbreaks. Early-on testing can allow for the severity and reach of each outbreak to be understood and the spread to be limited (Awan, 2025). One way this can be achieved is by simultaneously testing milk from multiple farms; if avian flu is detected, it can be traced back to and isolated at its origin (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2025). Moreover, farms should have easier access to testing equipment, more financial funding, and be updated on the current situation regionally (News Medical, 2024).

Farms should also have better access to testing equipment, more financial funding, and be regularly updated (News Medical, 2024). Vaccines for farm workers are also another important step. As they are currently the most at-risk, stronger protections, including vaccinations, could prevent widespread avian flu and ensure their health and safety (News Medical, 2024). Additionally, tackling the issue before it transmits widely can prevent a public health crisis. Addressing the avian flu by involving local scientists and workers is ultimately the best way to combat its spread.

Conclusion

Avian flu is a rapidly evolving threat to public health, animals, and the poultry industry as a whole. Already, the ramifications are seen through increased consumer prices, farms’ financial struggles, human infections, and the deaths of thousands of birds and cattle. Undoubtedly, as avian flu continues to evolve through recombination, infection rates will sharply rise among both livestock and humans. Slow government reaction and the lack of proactive measures certainly intensified the severity and extent of the virus. However, collaborations between local officials and the federal government can halt the spread of the virus, and consistent monitoring of its evolutions can ensure the proper treatment of new strains.

References

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